Observability is a word from IT Land. We don’t usually hear about it much in the world of SEO and AI search, although we should and I think we’re going to hear about it a lot more.

As we’ve been discussing recently, the landscape of search data is changing in many ways, but one key change is that it is becoming an increasingly volatile data set to work with.

This volatility is, in our view, directly correlated with the value it provides AI and data teams. It’s a scarce resource, it’s hard to get at scale, and it provides a look at the forces that reflect, influence, and shape consumer behavior on a scale that cannot be found elsewhere.

It is also our data, like yours and mine. This goes back to our belief that if there is data about you or something that affects you, then it is your data. Same thing goes for your websites.

The key players who claim to “own” this data thrive on information asymmetry and, as a result, aren’t particularly inclined to make it easy to get.

Hence the volatility.

As this volatility has increased, especially over the last year, it has become increasingly important to build data about this data to answer questions like: what is the error rate, sampling rate, number of pages being fetched, and so forth, on a daily basis.

And the shape of these questions and answers differs depending on the engine in question. If we’re talking about Google SERPs, then it has one set of characteristics, and data from ChatGPT has another. And so on.

To date, as far as we are aware, there isn’t much out there from vendors such as DemandSphere (or anyone in our market) providing answers to these questions as a part of their offering.

We feel that it is time to change that and, as a result, we are announcing a new feature within our platform called Observability. We’ve been working on this for a few months. It’s not what we would consider “done” as it will be evolving every time there is a new big change and there is still a lot more that we want to do with it.

First, let’s establish a formal definition of what Observability is in the IT world.

What is Observability in IT and data?

The goal of Observability is to understand a system’s internal state and the key characteristics that shape how data within the system manifests itself. All data has a shape. Observability describes that shape and the forces that act upon it. Traditionally, there are a number of key aspects to Observability, including:

  • Logs: the raw data, typically row-level data of events that will be aggregated
  • Metrics: key observations about the events themselves
  • Traces: essentially, the signals needed to trace the metrics shown back to the logs collected

Observability vs. Monitoring

They may sound similar, but Observability and Monitoring are two different things. Traditionally Monitoring focuses on predefined alerts and looking for certain patterns. Observability is designed to provide more ad hoc levels of flexibility to analyze the data.

In the context of SEO and AI search and, specifically for our feature, we are adding an additional facet to this definition: first-order vs. second-order.

First-order is the data that everybody pays for: SERP data, LLM data, etc.

Second-order is the data about this data. Again, this will be data points like error rate, sampling rate, etc.

In a perfect world, there wouldn’t be a need for much second-order data about the first-order data but, as of October 2026, we’re in a new world.

We can confidently predict that we are entering a new era of volatility and that it will be key for customers to understand what is happening within their data systems on a regular basis.

This does add a large new burden on platform vendors that did not exist before and it is something that will take time to build up. But we’ve decided to do it and we’re announcing this new feature set today.

Observability in DemandSphere

There have been a number of volatile changes with data, particularly from Google, over the last year. We log the confirmed ones on the Google Algorithm and AI Search Update Tracker.

One that we haven’t had a chance to talk about too much publicly yet, and it hasn’t affected everybody, is what we call “drop-and-pops” (“DnPs” for short).

A drop-and-pop occurs when Google temporarily tanks a given domain’s rankings for a few days and then brings them back to where they were. This is something that has occurred, to varying degrees, for years. But clients started to notice an increase in these in May. We needed a way to show the extent, impact, and volatility levels of these events. We also needed to be able to show when some percentage of results happened to recover.

We set a 7-day window for this, on a rolling basis, and have developed our first version of Observability around this phenomenon.

Here are some views from REI (not yet a client but we’d love to talk to you), a domain we use a lot for demos.

An overview of the DnP situation:

Tier × pattern (volume-weighted)
Primary tiers within share-of-voice scope. Each cell shows % of tier volume in that pattern, with keyword count.
TierStableTentativeErodedLost (rec.)Eroded→LostLost (unres.)Drop & Pop
pre-drop ≤ 20
Top 1–3
1059 kws · 9,592,500 mo. searches
99.8%
1044 kws
0.0%
1 kws
0.1%
4 kws
0.1%
7 kws
0.0%
0 kws
0.0%
3 kws
64.8%
1.6 ep/kw
Top 4–10
469 kws · 1,842,280 mo. searches
99.3%
450 kws
0.0%
2 kws
0.7%
7 kws
0.0%
5 kws
0.0%
0 kws
0.0%
5 kws
80.6%
3.6 ep/kw
Top 11–20
75 kws · 327,350 mo. searches
99.9%
65 kws
0.0%
0 kws
0.0%
0 kws
0.1%
7 kws
0.0%
0 kws
0.0%
3 kws
98.7%
7.4 ep/kw
Reading this. Stable = keyword is operationally fine after imputation. Tentative = ends the period NR but only for <8 days. Eroded = still ranking but median position dropped ≥10 positions. Lost (recovered) = had a real 8+ day NR episode but ended the period ranking. Eroded→Lost = position drifted ≥10 downward before going NR. Lost (unresolved) = ends the period non-ranking for 8+ sustained days. Drop & Pop = share with ≥1 resolved ≤7-day NR episode.

Trended view:

Daily drop-and-pop · count-weightedpre-drop ≤ 20
Prevalence is the share of keywords currently inside a DnP episode. The amber dashed line is a Theil-Sen trend fit on the pre-boundary days. The right-edge boundary zone, the last 7 days, is shaded because imputation loses accuracy there.
0%25%50%75%100%MayJunJulAugSepOct2026-04-092026-04-272026-05-152026-06-022026-06-202026-07-082026-07-262026-08-132026-08-312026-09-18
DnP prevalenceDiagnostic trend
Prevalence by tier · monthly average
boundary zone excluded · partial months annotated
TierAPR 2026MAY 2026JUN 2026JUL 2026AUG 2026SEP 2026OCT 2026
partial · through 2026-10-05
Period avg
Top 1–30.4%2.3%2.1%1.3%0.4%1.1%–1.3%
Top 4–103.8%5.0%3.6%4.2%1.5%2.3%–3.4%
Top 11–208.9%9.6%6.7%7.7%4.4%6.0%–7.2%
Avg of tiers4.4%5.6%4.1%4.4%2.1%3.1%–3.9%
All primary tiers (weighted)1.8%3.4%2.7%2.4%0.9%1.7%–2.2%

Volume-weighted trends:

Daily drop-and-pop · volume-weightedpre-drop ≤ 20
Same episode qualification, weighted by monthly search volume. Higher-volume keywords contribute proportionally more, which reveals head-term concentration.
0%25%50%75%100%MayJunJulAugSepOct2026-04-092026-04-272026-05-152026-06-022026-06-202026-07-082026-07-262026-08-132026-08-312026-09-18
DnP prevalenceDiagnostic trend
Prevalence by tier · monthly average
boundary zone excluded · partial months annotated
TierAPR 2026MAY 2026JUN 2026JUL 2026AUG 2026SEP 2026OCT 2026
partial · through 2026-10-05
Period avg
Top 1–30.1%0.5%1.4%2.6%1.3%0.3%–1.1%
Top 4–102.6%3.0%2.1%1.4%0.7%3.0%–2.1%
Top 11–209.4%11.1%6.4%6.0%2.1%4.6%–6.5%
Avg of tiers4.0%4.8%3.3%3.4%1.4%2.7%–3.2%
All primary tiers (weighted)0.7%1.2%1.7%2.5%1.2%0.9%–1.4%

Position trends by tier, which show whether damage is concentrated or spread evenly:

Top 1–31059 kws
trend +0.04 pos/wk
01020MayAprJunAugOct
Top 4–10469 kws
trend -0.04 pos/wk
01020MayAprJunAugOct
Top 11–2075 kws
trend -0.16 pos/wk
02550MayAprJunAugOct
Top 21–5026 kws
trend -0.10 pos/wk
02550MayAprJunAugOct
Average positionMedian position
Read the tier panels left to right. Damage concentrated in the premium tier, with the Top 1–3 trend pointing up, is genuine trouble; similar trends across every tier is tracker noise. Slope values are positions per week for average position, or percentage points per week for DnP.

An additional view on confirmed lost keywords (DnP did not “pop” again within 7 days):

Confirmed lost keywords · top by volume
Keywords classified lost_unresolved (sudden) or eroded_into_loss (gradual) in primary tiers, sorted by search volume.
Customer impact
QueryMo. searchesTierPatternBaseline med posDrop dateDnP history
day packing2,900Top 1–3lost_unresolved1.02026-08-219 ≤20 · 9 any
what age is a 24-inch bike for210Top 4–10lost_unresolved4.02026-08-2215 ≤20 · 15 any
how tall should you be for a 16-inch bike30Top 4–10lost_unresolved5.02026-08-1210 ≤20 · 10 any
what age can ride a 26 inch bike30Top 4–10lost_unresolved7.52026-07-195 ≤20 · 5 any
do running shoes make a difference in running0Top 11–20lost_unresolved19.02026-08-1010 ≤20 · 10 any
plug types in africa0Top 4–10lost_unresolved5.02026-09-2712 ≤20 · 12 any
should you buy walking shoes one size bigger0Top 1–3lost_unresolved3.02026-06-193 ≤20 · 3 any
what age is good for 24-inch bike0Top 11–20lost_unresolved10.52026-07-103 ≤20 · 3 any
what happens when you take a geocache0Top 11–20lost_unresolved11.02026-08-127 ≤20 · 7 any
what outfits to wear in winter0Top 4–10lost_unresolved10.02026-08-047 ≤20 · 8 any

We have a similar one for recovered keywords.

We are, this week, adding some additional metrics, one of which we will discuss in our next blog post about Google serving spurious results.

These metrics will cover both the spurious results rate and also the overall sampling percentage, along with details around which keywords have sampled data on a day-to-day basis.

Conclusion

Given the world we’re heading into, we believe strongly that transparency and Observability are critical aspects of any data strategy and that is doubly true when it comes to the world of search. Let me know any questions or feedback!